Analitika Forex Rupiah

Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs: -,. , (). , INR, TRY, ZAR IDR. -,,:,,. -,. -:. ,. -. ,. ,. ,. InstaForex. ,. , Analitika-forex. ru. 818. . 0.0 0Date. 5 de agosto de 2015. MOVIMENTOS DE MOEDA DE 5 de agosto de 2015. O EURUSD, fechou fortemente mais baixo na terça-feira na sequência de novos comentários do Feds Lockhart dos EUA, que sugeriu que os próximos dados econômicos dos EUA teriam de decepcionar significativamente para que o FOMC adulasse um aperto em Setembro. O mercado reagiu aos comentários hawkish com a compra fresca de dólares dos EUA, acelerando a pressão descendente sobre o par EURUSD. Agora que o EURUSD perdeu o suporte girando a área de resistência dos 1.0920 e o fato de que o preço não conseguiu manter um novo nível mais alto acima do 1.1120.s, bem como a análise do oscilador de impulso descendente, isso me leva a segurar Firme a minha opinião de que os preços da EURUSD continuarão a negociar firmemente mais baixos dentro do canal de preços descendentes de várias semanas em direção à minha área alvo perto dos 1.0750 nos próximos dias. À medida que a taxa de juros se espalha entre o USD e a GBP em relação ao EUR se amplia, e a expectativa de que os EUA e U. K comecem a aumentar as taxas, apoiam ainda o interesse de compra no dólar americano e na libra esterlina no curto prazo. Os comerciantes também devem tomar nota dos recentes comentários hawkish do BoE e dos membros do conselho do Fed que estão deixando pistas de aumentos de taxas pendentes. O AUD fez um grande movimento na terça-feira seguindo dados melhores do que o esperado de vendas e varejo e, em seguida, uma mudança de idioma na declaração da RBA após a decisão antecipada de deixar a taxa de transmissão em 2.0. O Conselho de Administração disse em sua declaração que o dólar australiano está se ajustando às quedas significativas nos principais preços das commodities. O AUDUSD reagiu quase 165 pips na declaração. Pares de moedas, Desempenho agrupado (mudança) Os novos gráficos de movimentação de moedas mostram a variação percentual em dias anteriores ao momento atual em relação às outras principais moedas. A GBP está negociando mais alta em relação às maiores, já que os últimos dados do PMI continuaram a mostrar um crescimento sólido. O AUD está retraindo mais baixo após o avanço forte de ontem. O suporte diário significativo e os níveis de resistência para esses pares são: Principais Eventos de Macro Hoje EUR Serviços PMI: A leitura de serviços foi revisada para 53,9 de 53,8 e o composto para 53,9 de 53,7. No geral, a economia da zona do euro está até agora mostrando resiliência e os dados são consistentes com a avaliação dos BCE de que a atividade econômica continua a se ampliar. US ISM Non-Manufacturing: o sentimento do produtor do setor de serviços de julho está fora no final de hoje e deve revelar um título de 56.0 (mediana 56.2) para o mês, estável a partir de junho. Outras medidas de sentimento do produtor para o mês foram misturadas, mas devem permitir que a média ajustada do ISM para julho mantenha o aumento para 53 que vimos em junho. Observe que os horários são exibidos com base no fuso horário local e são a partir do momento de redação desse relatório. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: Este material é fornecido como uma comunicação de marketing geral apenas para fins informativos e não constitui uma pesquisa de investimento independente. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis ​​e qualquer informação que contenha uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os usuários reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um alto nível de risco pelo qual os usuários são os únicos responsáveis ​​e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento feito com base nas informações fornecidas nesta comunicação. Esta comunicação não deve ser reproduzida ou distribuída sem a nossa autorização prévia por escrito. NSerega 14.09.2015 14:46. Encontro. 6 de agosto de 2015. MOVIMENTOS DE MOEDA DE 5 de agosto de 2015. O EURUSD tem um nível de suporte de curto prazo perto dos 1.0850 e níveis de resistência em torno de 1.0990s 1.1020s. A tendência a curto prazo é agora negativa, e a negociação em linha com a posição do BHs dovish para aumentar o fornecimento de EURs no mercado. Os comerciantes EURUSD de curto prazo podem procurar re-vender em força se os preços se estendem após os níveis de resistência de 1.0990s 1.1020s, idealmente entre 1.10s 1.1050s para um alvo de preço de 1.0750s. A negatividade adicional em relação ao euro vem das vendas no varejo da Eurozona muito mais fracas do que o esperado, que caiu 0,6 mm, mantendo o euro sob pressão, compensando uma revisão ascendente nos serviços finais da Eurozona e nos dados compostos da pesquisa PMI para julho. O fato de que tanto os EUA quanto a U. K estão buscando elevar suas taxas está dando aos comerciantes razões suficientes para suportar o dólar americano e a libra britânica, aumentando as pressões de venda em euros. Na quarta-feira, o relatório de emprego do ADP dos EUA perdeu as expectativas no entanto, o ISM dos serviços de julho registrou uma alta de 10 anos. O EURUSD reagiu aos altos da sessão em torno de 1.0930 após os dados de emprego e, em seguida, caiu para níveis de sessão perto de 1.0850 após o resultado do ISM. Pares de moedas, Desempenho agrupado (mudança) Os novos gráficos de movimentação de moedas mostram a variação percentual em dias anteriores ao momento atual em relação às outras principais moedas. O AUD está negociando mais baixo contra as principais empresas, uma vez que os preços das commodities estão a enfraquecer. Os dados da CFTC também relatam que as posições baixas especulativas líquidas aumentaram para o AUD. O USD, o EUR, o GBP e o JPY estão todos negociados, pois os comerciantes aguardam dados do GBP. O suporte diário significativo e os níveis de resistência para estes pares são: Principais Eventos de Macro Hoje Decisão do GBP BoE Taxa de Juros: o banco central é amplamente esperado para deixar a taxa de repo em 25 pb. Hoje é o BoE Super Thursdays inaugural, que incluirá o lançamento instantâneo dos minutos MPC e o último Relatório Trimestral de Inflação. O governador Carney também liderará uma conferência de imprensa de uma hora. Os minutos provavelmente revelarão uma mudança radical no BoE, com os membros do MPC, Weale e McCafferty, visto retomar seu voto em favor de uma subida de 25 pb (tendo votado nestes entre agosto e dezembro do ano passado), embora ainda seja superado por 7 a 2. Carney provavelmente manterá que o próximo movimento será uma caminhada, mas ainda apresenta uma visão relativamente equilibrada, de acordo com as expectativas do mercado de apertar para começar em fevereiro do próximo ano. O BoE também é susceptível de reduzir as previsões de inflação a curto prazo, dada a força ponderada pelo comércio sterlings, o recente declínio nos preços do petróleo e sinais de que a produtividade está melhorando, embora ao mesmo tempo seja susceptível de marcar o risco ascendente mais abaixo na pista. Observe que os horários são exibidos com base no fuso horário local e são a partir do momento de redação desse relatório. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: Este material é fornecido como uma comunicação de marketing geral apenas para fins informativos e não constitui uma pesquisa de investimento independente. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis ​​e qualquer informação que contenha uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os usuários reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um alto nível de risco pelo qual os usuários são os únicos responsáveis ​​e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento feito com base nas informações fornecidas nesta comunicação. Esta comunicação não deve ser reproduzida ou distribuída sem a nossa autorização prévia por escrito. NSerega 14.09.2015 14:46. Encontro. 7 de agosto de 2015. MOVIMENTOS DE MOEDA DE 7 de agosto de 2015. O preço da EURUSD continua a ser contratado e comercializado dentro de uma faixa estreita de três dias antes do lançamento de dados econômicos de folha de pagamento não-agrícola dos EUA. A análise da tendência do EURUSD da banda de Bollinger no gráfico diário indica que a volatilidade está se reduzindo, o que é típico antes da divulgação de um importante relatório econômico. O preço das últimas três sessões de negociação permaneceu abaixo da média móvel simples de 20 períodos, no entanto, uma curva de alta é observada no indicador do Oscilador de Momento Estocástico. O fato de que o preço permanece bem contido no canal de deslocamento descendente de várias semanas e a observação cruzada alta que se acumulou abaixo do nível estocástico 20 indica condições de mercado sobrejacentes no curto prazo. O Bank of Englands, a primeira quinta-feira, enviou a Sterling para baixo, o BoE deixou a política monetária inalterada. O BoE está lentamente se preparando para a primeira caminhada de taxa, no entanto, eles não estão apressados ​​em se mover. O GBPUSD fechou-se acentuadamente mais baixo para o dia em torno de 170 pips dos dias altos, na sequência do calendário econômico pesado dos dias. O USD recuou durante o comércio de N. Y. na quinta-feira, depois de reivindicações de desempregados semanais dignas deram ao USD algum apoio antecipado. O PIB dos EUA real cresceu 2,3 ​​por cento no segundo trimestre, de acordo com a estimativa prévia do Departamento de Análise Econômica dos EUA. Os mercados de ações asiáticos foram misturados no comércio overnight, com a China eo Japão. O Banco do Japão deixou a política inalterada, como amplamente esperado. Pares de moedas, Desempenho agrupado (mudança) Os novos gráficos de movimentação de moedas mostram a variação percentual em dias anteriores ao momento atual em relação às outras principais moedas. A GBP está negociando mais baixo contra as principais empresas depois que o BoE destacou que não tem pressa para aumentar as taxas. O AUD está negociando mais alto, já que o BoA continua otimista em relação à economia doméstica e a demanda por commodities australianas parece estar melhorando. O suporte diário significativo e os níveis de resistência para esses pares são: Principais Eventos Macro Hoje USD Folhas de pagamento não agrícolas: as folhas de pagamento não agrícolas de julho devem aumentar em 215k, com um ganho de folha de pagamento privado de 205k. O risco de mercado se a folha de pagamento for descendente, poderia impactar o tempo de subida das taxas. Se para cima, deve fornecer algum vento de cauda. USD Taxa de desemprego: Espera-se que a taxa de desemprego se mantenha estável em 5,3 a partir de junho. Espera-se que a semana de trabalho seja de 34,5 por um quinto mês. CAD Variação Líquida no Emprego: O emprego deverá aumentar 10,0k em julho após a queda de 6,4k em junho. Observe que os horários são exibidos com base no fuso horário local e são a partir do momento de redação desse relatório. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: Este material é fornecido como uma comunicação de marketing geral apenas para fins informativos e não constitui uma pesquisa de investimento independente. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis ​​e qualquer informação que contenha uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os usuários reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um alto nível de risco pelo qual os usuários são os únicos responsáveis ​​e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento feito com base nas informações fornecidas nesta comunicação. Esta comunicação não deve ser reproduzida ou distribuída sem a nossa autorização prévia por escrito. NSerega 14.09.2015 14:47. Encontro. 10 de agosto de 2015. MOVIMENTOS DE MOEDA DE 10 de agosto de 2015. O preço da EURUSD continua a se recuperar das condições do mercado sobrevendido, uma vez que o USD negociado diminuiu na sexta-feira, mesmo que o relatório de empregos atinja as expectativas. As chances de uma subida da taxa de setembro do Fed em setembro parecem mais prováveis ​​com o relatório de folha de pagamento não agrícola apontando para o forte crescimento do emprego nos EUA. O EUR mal mudou no início da segunda-feira, o comércio contra o dólar, mas é contra a maioria das outras moedas. O calendário europeu é bastante tranquilo hoje, com a confiança das empresas francesas do Banco da França e Sentix Investor Confidence for the Eurozone. Tecnicamente, o EURUSD está mantendo uma sucessão multi-semana de partes inferiores e fundos. Podemos ver uma terceira tentativa de um ataque ascendente no 1.1120 como um preço rebaixar nos 1.0850s, antes da retomada do declínio do preço de várias semanas a partir do máximo de 18 de junho de 1.1436, isto é antes de vermos os preços moerem mais baixo em direção a Minha área alvo de preço médio perto da 1.0750s. Os dados alemães enfraquecem, com a produção industrial inesperadamente mergulhando 1,4 mm em dados de junho (a previsão média foi de 0,9). A contração nítida e inesperada na produção alemã de junho deixará uma sombra sobre as estimativas do PIB do segundo trimestre. No entanto, o EUR parece estar ignorando isso à medida que os compradores de EUR estão surgindo em condições de sobrevoo de curto prazo. Os mercados da semana adiantada na Ásia estão se consolidando após as vendas de sexta-feira, os empregos reportarem a volatilidade do mercado. A especulação de que Pequim vai acelerar as fusões de empresas estatais ajudou a apoiar as ações, enquanto o japonês Nikkei foi conduzido por relatórios de ganhos e o mercado australiano foi apoiado por uma forte recuperação nos recursos bancários. O relatório dos EUA na sexta-feira imprimiu um aumento de folha de pagamento de 215k de julho com um ganho de ganhos por hora de 0,2 que correspondeu exatamente às estimativas, mas os pequenos ganhos de 101k para empregos civis e 69k para a força de trabalho após as quedas de junho foram uma decepção. Houve uma queda na taxa de desemprego para um 5.26 ciclo-baixo de 5.28, embora a taxa de participação da força de trabalho permaneceu em um mínimo de 38 anos de 62.6. O FOMC está à beira da sua primeira subida de taxas desde junho de 2006. No entanto, um aperto ainda não é garantido e existem alguns riscos que poderiam manter o Fed afastado. Pares de moedas, Desempenho agrupado (mudança) Os novos gráficos de movimentadores de moeda mostram a variação percentual da variação de moeda corrente atual de 5 dias em relação às outras moedas principais. O AUD está negociando mais alto, já que a RBA fala sobre uma economia mais forte e os vendedores curtos ficam apertados. A demanda por commodities australianas também parece estar melhorando. A GBP está sendo negociada mais baixa depois de Super quinta-feira acabou por ser uma decepção e o BoE pode adiar uma alta de tarifas. O suporte diário significativo e os níveis de resistência para esses pares são: Principais Eventos de Macro Hoje EUR Sentix Confiança do Investidor: a previsão é para uma leitura de 20,2 do 18,5 anterior, uma leitura maior irá destacar a confiança dos investidores na recuperação econômica da Europes. USD FOMC Membro Lockhart fala: Devido ao falar no Atlanta Press Club e vai ter perguntas do público. Observe que os horários são exibidos com base no fuso horário local e são a partir do momento de redação desse relatório. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: Este material é fornecido como uma comunicação de marketing geral apenas para fins informativos e não constitui uma pesquisa de investimento independente. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis ​​e qualquer informação que contenha uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os usuários reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um alto nível de risco pelo qual os usuários são os únicos responsáveis ​​e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento feito com base nas informações fornecidas nesta comunicação. Esta comunicação não deve ser reproduzida ou distribuída sem a nossa autorização prévia por escrito. NSerega 14.09.2015 14:47. Encontro. 11 de agosto de 2015. MOVIMENTOS DE MOEDA DE 11 de agosto de 2015. O EURUSD vem aumentando nos últimos quatro dias de negociação depois de ter criado uma baixa mais alta em 1.0848 suporte semanal. Isso trouxe o par conclusivamente para fora do canal do urso após uma falha no final de julho falhar. Esta primeira tentativa fracassada, mas foi uma pitada de coisas para vir e o mercado conseguiu criar uma baixa mais alta em 5 de agosto. Ontem foi a primeira vez que o EURUSD ficou fora do canal para um dia de negociação completo, confirmando assim que a dinâmica de descida que estava em vigor em julho não está ditando que o mercado se move por mais tempo. Portanto, espero que esta ação de preço de semanas seja vinculada entre o suporte semanal maior e os níveis de resistência em 1.0848 e 1.1189. Estou vendo uma área de suporte na resolução diária entre 1.0848 e 1.0934, enquanto a área de resistência mais próxima está entre 1.1114 e 1.1189 e 50 e 61.8 Os níveis de Fibonacci coincidem com esses níveis. No entanto, antes que a EURUSD possa avançar, tem que lidar com uma resistência criada pela banda 2 de BdBinger superior e média móvel de 50 dias (atualmente em 1.1090). Espero que a área entre 1.1061 e 1.1130 limite a negociação de hoje no lado positivo e depois procure uma mudança para 1.0870. O alemão ZEW inesperadamente caiu em agosto, com as expectativas de leitura caindo para 25,0 de 29,7. As condições atuais de leitura ainda melhoraram para 65,7 de 63,9 e o número de expectativas ainda permanece firmemente em território positivo, indicando que os otimistas superam em muito os pessimistas. Ainda assim, o fato de que a confiança dos investidores caiu novamente, apesar de sinais de que a Grécia está indo para um terceiro resgatar destaca que preocupações sobre o impacto dos Feds levantar e as perspectivas para a economia chinesa ofuscar uma situação mais estável na zona do euro. A forte leitura das condições atuais, que se relaciona com um aumento acentuado nas ordens alemãs no segundo trimestre, sugerem que a recuperação permanece no caminho certo no terceiro trimestre, mas as preocupações com as perspectivas a longo prazo parecem estar em ascensão. Os futuros do Bund aumentaram os ganhos no número fraco e o contrato de 10 meses de setembro cresce agora em 44 carrapatos em 154,39. China desvalorizou o yuan após as exportações de julho, diminuímos em 8,3. As moedas foram afetadas pela desvalorização do yuan no PBoCs, com o AUD e o NZD perdendo mais de 1 para o USD na sequência do movimento, enquanto o won e o iene foram atingidos em menor medida. Uma oferta indireta por dólares viu o EURUSD cair de volta ao meio da 1.09s depois de forex acima de 1.1000 após o fechamento de Londres ontem. O PBoC reduziu a taxa diária de US $ 1,19 para 6,228, a maior desvalorização desde que o banco central deixou cair a sua posição contra o dólar. O movimento segue os dados do comércio sombrio fora da China durante o fim de semana e, aparentemente, é uma iniciativa única destinada a convergir os preços onshore e offshore, à medida que um novo regime de preços é estabelecido antes do importante voto de inclusão do SDF no final deste ano, de acordo com O FT. AUDUSD mergulhou em uma grande figura ao fazer uma baixa de uma semana em 0.7305. USDJPY elevou-se para um pico de dois dias de 124,89. Os futuros de ações europeus estão indo para o sul, em conjunto com os futuros de ações dos EUA após a mudança de Chinas para desvalorizar sua moeda, o que aumentará as preocupações com a saúde da economia chinesa, ao mesmo tempo em que suscita preocupações de que a desvalorização prejudicará os exportadores em outros lugares, pois aumentará artificialmente Competitividade dos fabricantes chineses. Isso poderia colocar novas pressões sobre outros bancos centrais para levar suas próprias moedas mais em conta. O DAX estava ansioso para uma melhoria esperada no ZEW após ganhos robustos de ontem. Feds Lockhart ainda está disposto a disparar de setembro, apesar de aguardar um mês ou dois não será decisivo para a economia e um ritmo de aperto gradual significa algo menos freqüente do que uma caminhada em cada reunião. Ele vê algumas evidências de aquecimento da inflação, embora os baixos preços globais das commodities possam ser uma preocupação se sinalizar uma demanda global fraca. Lockhart considera o progresso da inflação importante ao estabelecer o ritmo da subida das taxas após o levantamento. Ele vê o risco imediato de spillover grego como aprovado, mas qualquer acordo ainda precisa ser implementado. Parece que hes deixou-se algum espaço de alvoroço no desligamento no limiar de inflação, apesar de ainda favorecer um movimento de setembro. Pares de moeda, desempenho agrupado (mudança) O AUD foi atingido hoje, uma vez que a China decidiu desvalorizar sua moeda. O movimento foi visto como um sinal de fraqueza na economia chinesa e, como o AUD realmente comercializa os fundamentos chineses, foi vendido. Depois de diminuir a maioria contra a moeda de refúgio seguro CHF AUD agora está mais baixo do que o EUR. No entanto, há perdas contra a maioria das outras moedas principais também. A notícia trouxe a AUDUSD para baixar as Bandas de Bollinger na resolução de 4h enquanto o EURAUD saiu de um alcance apertado nos últimos quatro dias de negociação. GBPAUD reagiu reunindo-se para uma resistência à vela pivotante semanalmente baixa. AUDCAD caiu significativamente de uma resistência nas notícias de desvalorização, já que o petróleo bruto viu um pouco de força de um suporte importante. O suporte diário significativo e os níveis de resistência para esses pares são: Principais Eventos Macro Hoje Alemão O status do investidor de agosto ZEW deverá aumentar para 31.0 (mediana 32.0) de 29.7 em julho. No entanto, o número estava abaixo do anterior e chegou em 25. Comércio por atacado dos EUA: os dados do comércio de atacado de junho estão fora hoje e espera-se que ele mostre um aumento de 0,8 (mediana 0,5) em junho com estoques acima de 0,7. Os dados em linha com esta previsão deixariam o índice de IS estável em 1,29 a partir de abril. O lançamento de maio teve envios de 0,3 em maio e estoques de 0,8. Produtividade dos EUA: o primeiro lançamento sobre a produtividade do segundo trimestre deve ser lançado hoje e deve revelar uma manchete 2.0 (mediana 1.5) que segue uma manchete de -3,1 no primeiro trimestre. Os custos unitários da mão-de-obra são observados em -0,5 (mediana 0,3) após 6,7 no primeiro trimestre. A produtividade foi negativa em Q1 e Q4 do ano passado, mas agora está pronta para registrar ganhos. Os inícios de habitação do Canadá deverão melhorar para uma taxa de unidade de 205.0k em julho do ritmo de 203.0k em junho. Risco de previsão: as economias das regiões produtoras de energia da Canadas tiveram resultados bem publicitados da queda dos preços da energia. Esperamos que a atividade mais lenta desses mercados continue. No entanto, as taxas de hipoteca são magra, o que aumentou a atividade em outras regiões e ajudou a manter o impulso na atividade de construção. Risco de mercado: o Banco decidiu que a ameaça da queda dos preços do petróleo era o desafio que a economia de Canadas enfrentava, e os riscos negativos para o crescimento eram suficientes para uma facilidade de seguro. Tal movimento parece aumentar o risco de uma bolha imobiliária. Não se preocupe, como o Banco diz que uma política mais fácil ajudará a assegurar que os rendimentos não mergulham, o que, por sua vez, permitirá que as famílias atendam a dívida. Observe que os horários são exibidos com base no fuso horário local e são a partir do momento de redação desse relatório. Quer aprender a negociar e analisar os mercados Junte-se aos nossos webinars e obtenha idéias de análise e negociação combinadas com um melhor entendimento sobre como os mercados funcionam. Janne Muta Analista de Mercado Principal HotForex Aviso: Este material é fornecido como uma comunicação de marketing geral apenas para fins informativos e não constitui uma pesquisa de investimento independente. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis ​​e qualquer informação que contenha uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os usuários reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um alto nível de risco pelo qual os usuários são os únicos responsáveis ​​e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento feito com base nas informações fornecidas nesta comunicação. Esta comunicação não deve ser reproduzida ou distribuída sem a nossa autorização prévia por escrito. Encontro. 12 de agosto de 2015. MOVIMENTOS DE MOEDA DE 12 de agosto de 2015. A EURUSD reagiu à resistência de 1.1090 identificada no meu relatório ontem. O casal reagiu mais baixo, mas atraiu compradores em um suporte intraday em 1.1012. Isso levou a um quinto dia consecutivo com preço mais uma vez tentando desafiar a área de resistência acima de 1.1090. O EURUSD está negociando dentro das bandas superiores de Bollinger (1,5 e 2 stdv) e o estocástico está sendo superbiscado. A tendência na resolução de 4h foi forte e sugeriu que este será outro dia sem uma correção significativa no EURUSD, mas a vantagem é, de fato, ficar limitada à medida que a área de resistência está próxima. O EURUSD está negociando perto de níveis que conseguiram tornar o preço mais baixo antes, portanto, espero que, na posição de negociação de hoje, será limitada a 1.1090 1.1130. O PBoC desvalorizou novamente, mudando a taxa de referência de Yuans para 6.3306 em relação ao dólar, que é um 1,6 enfraquecimento da moeda chinesa em relação aos onze 6.228 (que em si marcou 1,9 de depreciação). Parece que existe um grau de aceitação nos mercados, com os economistas do Credit Suisse, por exemplo, calculando que o yuan estava 5 a 10 sobrevalorizado indo para as desvalorizações, acrescentando que algo mais do que uma mudança de 10 na moeda provocaria uma contração política. Os dados chineses recebidos hoje, incluindo produção, vendas no varejo e investimentos em ativos fixos, mostraram fraqueza. Legisladores alemães não estão prontos para dar uma onda de resgate grego. Há relatos de que a chanceler alemã Merkel enfrenta oposição ao plano para permitir que os legisladores votem no terceiro pacote de resgate da Grécia no início da próxima semana. Um deputado do ministro das Finanças, Schaeuble, disse à televisão ARD que é preciso olhar atentamente e pedir aprovação ao Bundestag quando o entendimento comum é que isso durará três anos. Se houver um atraso, pode descarrilar o horário próximo de Greeces e a corrida para obter aprovação política antes que a Grécia enfrente outro grande reembolso do BCE em 20 de agosto. As insolvências alemãs estão caindo acentuadamente, com o número total abaixo de 6,6 yy no ano até agora e para baixo 10,6 aa só em maio. Este é outro sinal de uma economia doméstica relativamente robusta, mas também um reflexo do fato de que especialmente as pequenas empresas na Alemanha enfrentam menos restrições de financiamento do que as empresas de outros países da zona do euro. O ambiente de baixa taxa de juros e a forte demanda doméstica também estão ajudando a executar. Ontem, as vendas por atacado dos EUA subiram 0,1 em junho e os estoques aumentaram 0,9. O ganho de vendas de 0,3% foi diminuído de 0,2. Mays 0.8 saltou nos estoques foi revisado menor para 0.6 (0.4 abril). O índice inventário-vendas aumentou para 1,30 desde 1,29 (revisado de 1,29). Os ganhos na maioria dos componentes de vendas não duráveis ​​compensam ligeiramente as quedas em larga escala nas vendas de bens duráveis. Os estoques foram impulsionados por automóveis e drogas. Os dados ajudarão a ajustar as estimativas do PIB. Pares de moedas, desempenho agrupado (mudança) Este é mais um dia que os participantes do mercado estão vendendo dólar australiano devido a outra desvalorização da moeda na China. O AUD está desacelerado contra os concorrentes em geral, enquanto o dinheiro está fluindo para CHF. Este é um sinal de que os mercados estão preocupados com esses movimentos surpresa pelo PBOC e sentem a necessidade de encontrar um refúgio seguro. O AUDUSD testou o suporte 0.7237 no início de hoje e reagiu ligeiramente no momento da redação. A resistência mais próxima está agora em 0.7315. EURAUD mudou-se para a resistência 1.5277 e agora está perto de outra resistência em 1.5332. GBPAUD está negociando dentro das bandas diárias superiores de Bollinger e reagiu ligeiramente mais baixo da resistência. O suporte diário significativo e os níveis de resistência para esses pares são: Principais Eventos de Macro Hoje Principais Eventos de Macro Hoje, a mudança de conta do revendedor do Reino Unido para julho deve chegar em 1,5k em comparação com a figura anterior de 7.0k. Produção industrial da zona do euro: deve haver um declínio nos números de produção de junho de -0,1 mm (mediana mesma0), após o desapontante número alemão. Os dados podem ser muito atrasados ​​para ser um grande motor de mercado ou alterar a perspectiva geral, mas um número fraco aumentará a aversão ao risco prevalecente, especialmente após a queda de surpresa no ZEW ontem. Orçamento do Tesouro dos EUA: os dados do tesouro de julho estão fora hoje e espera-se que revele um déficit de 149 mil milhões (mediana -129,8 bilhões) para o mês. Isso se compara a um superávit de 51,8 bilhões em junho e a um déficit de 94,6 bilhões em julho do ano passado. Os recibos são esperados em 224 bln, acima de 4.6 yy com desembolsos em 374 bilhões, 20,9 aa. Observe que os horários são exibidos com base no fuso horário local e são a partir do momento de redação desse relatório. Quer aprender a negociar e analisar os mercados Junte-se aos nossos webinars e obtenha idéias de análise e negociação combinadas com um melhor entendimento sobre como os mercados funcionam. Janne Muta Analista de Mercado Principal HotForex Aviso: Este material é fornecido como uma comunicação de marketing geral apenas para fins informativos e não constitui uma pesquisa de investimento independente. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis ​​e qualquer informação que contenha uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os usuários reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um alto nível de risco pelo qual os usuários são os únicos responsáveis ​​e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento feito com base nas informações fornecidas nesta comunicação. Esta comunicação não deve ser reproduzida ou distribuída sem a nossa autorização prévia por escrito. Encontro. 13 de agosto de 2015. MOVIMENTOS DE MOEDA DE 13 de agosto de 2015. O rali de ontem excedeu as minhas expectativas para o dia em que o EURUSD explodiu através da resistência em 1.1130. No entanto, ainda está dentro do intervalo, eu disse que esperaria conter essa ação de preço de semanas. Sugeri no meu relatório na terça-feira que o EURUSD não iria negociar além da resistência 1.1189. Houve um movimento rápido de cerca de 25 pips, mas foi rapidamente rejeitado pelos vendedores e o par está sendo comercializado em 1.1119. O EURUSD agora está se movendo para baixo em direção a uma área de suporte intradía entre 1.1030 e 1.1070. O próximo nível de suporte após este suporte intradiário é o máximo semanal em 1.10996. Esta alta semanal é bastante próxima da área de suporte acima dela e, portanto, aumenta sua significância. O suporte diário mais próximo e os níveis de resistência estão em 1.0934 e 1.1214. O PBoC desvalorizou o CNY por um terceiro dia, mas a um ritmo cada vez mais agressivo de 1,1, comparando 1,6 ontem e a 1.9 desvalorização inicial de segunda-feira. The central bank held a press conference to explain the devaluation in contrast to the two previous occasions arguing that there was no economic basis for the currency to continue depreciating, and that it would keep it stable. The PBoC had also intervened during its overnight session, when it trimmed losses in the CNY of nearly 2 to just 1. The central bank also said that the way the reference rate for the new session was modified would now incorporate the currencys close from the previous session, as well as demand and supply conditions. All this mollified broader market concerns. Most other Asian currencies managed to rebound, and stock and commodity markets picked up. Final German HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.1 yy, CPI at 0.2 yy, as expected. The breakdown showed seasonal price drops for clothes and shoes over the month, which were compensated by a rise in holiday related prices. The annual rate continues to reflect the impact of lower energy prices, with household energy down 5.7 yy, a further acceleration in the pace of decline, driven by a 22.4 yy drop in prices for heating oil. Headline numbers remain very low, not just in Germany, but deflation risks are now longer a major concern for the central bank, as core inflation starts to rise. US Treasury posted a 149.2 bln budget deficit in July, a 57.7 erosion versus the 94.6 bln shortfall a year ago. Spending surged 21.2 yy, while receipts rose only 5.1 yy. The fiscal year deficit now stands at 465.5 bln, worsening 1.1 yy compared to the 460.5 bln red ink for the same 10-month period of fiscal 2014. Also for the fiscal year to date, receipts are up 8.0 yy, with outlays up 6.9 yy. Were still forecasting a 430 bln deficit for the current fiscal year, which compares to the -483.3 bln for FY2014. September liftoff is far from a done deal thanks to Chinas devaluations and the broad impacts and implications rippling around the globe. For the time being well maintain our call for a 25 bp hike in September. But the Fed funds futures market is now showing only about a 40 chance for action. Odds were closer to 70 after the July jobs report. Factors that have the potential to cause the FOMC to delay are the risks of global economic weakness, the renewed threat of disinflation with the plunge in commodities, potential devaluations of other Asian currencies, and the stronger dollar which could be a net headwind to US growth. Its too soon for Fed officials to start making pronouncements on China, as indicated by Dudley earlier. While data will continue to be the Feds guiding light, policymakers have already shown their sensitivities to global dynamics, and overseas events could take precedence in the September rate decision if the markets become unglued. Currency Movers Charts In todays trading weve seen EUR correcting lower while USD, CAD and GBP have attracted money and moved higher. NZD is a clear loser today even though there has been no major news on the currency. NZD performance against GBP and USD stand out from the others. GBPNZD is moving higher in an ascending triangle that has been formed below a major historical weekly resistance at 2.4146 while NZDUSD moves sideways at a weekly support at 0.6470. AUDNZD reacted higher from a support yesterday and created a pin bar but there has been much momentum today. This price action is also taking place at a weekly pivotal high at 1.1113. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The minutes of the July policy meeting, are unlikely to bring any surprises, with comments likely to confirm a cautiously optimistic view on the growth outlook with some reservations due to the impact of the Greek crisis and uncertainty about world growth. Deflation risks are no longer a real issue and some council members will have highlighted risks of asset price bubbles, although the prevailing view at the ECB is that this is not a real concern for now and should be addressed at a national level via macro-prudential policies. The main concern at the ECB is the focus on the full implementation of the QE program and a clear message to markets that the prospect of rising rates in the U. S. doesnt mean the ECB is in a hurry to follow. US Retail Sales: July retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.4 (median 0.6) headline with a 0.4 (median 0.4) ex-autos increase. There are balanced risks to the report which we discussed in Mondays commentary as chain store sales slowed steadily over the course of the month after a strong start but a firm employment report and the 2.1 bounce in auto sales will help lift the report. US Import and Export Prices: July trade price data is due today and we expect import prices to decline by 1.3 (median -1.0) with export prices down 0.4 on the month. The import price index managed to increase in May as the winter and spring plunge in oil prices leveled off but further declines in oil prices during July look poised to once again weigh on the release. Our July forecasts compare to June figures of -0.1 for import prices and -0.2 for export prices. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 14th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th August 2015. With money continuing to flow into the USD and the GBP, traders continue to bet if the Fed will move to raise rates before the Bank of England. The EURUSD is set to consolidate after a six straight trading day advance from the 1.0850s with the recent price advance stopping just short of the 1.1220s resistance levels. Technically, I am expecting the EURUSD to dip towards the 1.1080s 1.0980s as buyers may emerge at those levels before any attempt to test towards the 1.1260s. The EUR market continues to re-price, at least in the short term, to reflect the diminished GREXIT concerns. German Q2 GDP expanded 0.4 qq, a slight acceleration from the 0.3 qq in Q1, which brought the working day adjusted annual rate to 1.6, up from 1.1 yy in the previous quarter. French non-farm payrolls raised 0.2 qq in Q2, while wage growth slowed to 0.3 from 0.5. Overall, French unemployment remains high, especially among the under 25s, but this is also due to Frances ongoing structural issues and low growth potential. Greek parliament approves 3rd bailout after an all night debate that showed the strains in Tsipras coalition. The vote paves the way for an agreement by Eurozone finance ministers at the Eurogroup meeting this afternoon. Markets are trading cautiously after a choppy week in the wake of Chinas unexpected devaluation of the yuan, but the move has been generally accepted by the markets. Wall Street also shrugged off the ongoing slide in crude oil below 42 for the time being. Firmer U. S. retail sales data was offset somewhat by negative trade price data and an uptick in jobless claims. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous days close to the current moment against the other major currencies. The USD is trading lower in cautious trade following a volatile week. The AUD is higher and commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD, as demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today EUR Eurozone Jul HICP: inflation confirmed at 0.2 yy, unchanged from the preliminary reading and the previous month. Prices dropped 0.6 mm, driven mainly by a renewed decline in energy prices, which were down 0.7 mm and fell 5.6 yy. Excluding energy, the annual rate stood at 0.9 yy in July and core inflation was confirmed at 1.0 yy, up from 0.8 yy in June. Even the core rate is considerably below the ECBs 2 limit for price stability, but the pick up confirms that the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very slim. CAD Manufacturing Sales: A swing in aerospace production featured in the May move higher, as activity in the sector rose 22.2 following the 18.0 drop in April. The depreciation in the value of the CAD during June should boost the value of sales and inventories held in U. S. dollars. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 17th August 2015. GOLD RALLY HALTED NEAR RESISTANCE. I pointed out in my previous report that the long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold. However, I noted that in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report. Market has since moved roughly as expected with the price of gold moving briefly below the 1080 support. This intraday move was quickly rejected and price closed above the support. This was followed by a sideways move and then a rally that almost reached the lower end of my resistance range last week. The long term weekly picture remains bearish with gold trading near previous support areas. The 23.6 Fibonacci level coincides with the 1130.40 low and therefore suggests increased significance of that level. Other resistance levels are approx. at 1142 and 1160. Gold extended a move to the downside and moved outside the bearish regression channel. Then it took its time after forming a pin bar at support and moved sideways. Now gold has rallied into the the upper Bollinger bands near the first significant resistance level at 1130.40. This level also coincides with a price projection based on the triangle width created by the sideways consolidation. Stochastics is somewhat overbought and rolling over indicating momentum to the downside should be followed by the recent failure to penetrate the Bollinger Bands. However, the support is fairly close at 1100 to 1103. This support area is roughly the higher end of the sideways move. Therefore the downside move from the current levels might not be that strong or long lived. Price is moving sideways after breaking below an ascending regression channel. A pivotal high candle low at 1120 limits the upside moves while the nearest 4h support is at 1111.50 coinciding with the lower 4h Bollinger Bands. The upper end of the 1100 to 1103 support area is where 50 period simple moving average is at the time of writing. At the same time Stochastics Oscillator quite correctly suggests that price is trading approx. in the midrange of the recent sideways move. The latest complete 4h bar is a pinbar that indicates lower prices but there has been now follow through. Even though gold is near the lower end of the long term downward trend channel the proximity of previous support levels (now resistance) suggests that it is hard for the buyers to create a strong rally from here. Price of gold has been a lacklustre performer in the past when the US Fed has been raising rates. This time should be no different unless some external event turns on a need for safe haven buying. Daily time frame rally from a triangle formation failed at the Bollinger Bands where it also reached a price projection target. This suggests the initial thrust to the upside is over as the target has been reached. If the support at 1111.50 breaks we should see gold correcting slightly lower to 1100 1103 support area. All in all, the price of gold is in the short term more likely to correct lower than move beyond the 1120 1126.30 resistance. Therefore if price moves into this range of resistance I will be looking for sell signals in the lower time frames. Should this take place my targets for the shorts are at 1110 and 1103. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 18th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th August 2015. The dollar continued on a steady-to-firm path during pre-European trade session in Asia, despite weakness in US Treasury yields amid growth worries and talk the FOMC will delay lift-off beyond September. EURUSD ebbed to a six-day low of 1.1051, and USDJPY lifted to the 124.50 area, though the pair remained well within its Monday range. For the last three weeks the Stochastics Oscillator has been giving high quality signals at both ends of its range. This happens when market moves sideways in a well-defined range. I said in my Aug 11th report that I expect this weeks price action to be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. The upper end of the range was tested over the next three days but price failed to penetrate the level on a closing basis. Since then the pair has been drifting lower. The key word here is drifting. Price move hasnt been strong and volatile but rather quite gradual. The pair has now reached the support range I mentioned in my Aug 13th report (1.1030 1.1070) and trades at 1.1060 at the time of writing. Therefore, I expect price will find support very close to the current price. The proximity of the 38.2 Fibonacci level at 1.1044 supports the idea. Reaction higher however, could be short lived to as there is resistance in 1.1114 1.1125 range. If this Im right and this resistance holds the support area between 1.08048 and 1.0934 becomes a likely target area for shorts. German Financial Minister Schaeuble calls on lawmakers to back Greek aid package. He sends a strong signal off support for Greeces 3rd bailout package ahead of Wednesdays vote in Germanys lower house of parliament, where Schaueble and Merkel are facing growing dissent from their own party. Schaeuble told public broadcaster ZDF that he sees a dramatic change in the governments readiness to reform and that: I can argue with full conviction, partly because I havent taken this decision lightly myself that the right thing to do is to vote for this. Schaeuble, like Merkel before him, seemed to be trying to play down difference with the IMF over Greeces debt sustainability and stressed that he is sure that the IMF will be involved in the program. US NAHB homebuilder sentiment index rose to 61 in August from 60 in June and is the highest since November 2005. The single family sales index edged up to 66 versus 65 last month (revised from 66). The future sales index was steady at 70 (July revised down from 71). The index of prospective buyer traffic improved 2 points to 45 versus 43 previously, and is the best reading of the year, underpinned by the gains in employment and still low mortgage rates. Currency Movers Charts The AUD is down after the RBA meeting minutes indicated that the bank believes the Fed rate hike will cause further depreciation in the AUD against the USD. NZD gained ground earlier today on the back of news on milk prices going up. According to Reuters there is a growing expectation that milk prices will rise in tonights auction. This commodity being important for the New Zealand economy potential for higher prices has supported the currency today. EURAUD is trading near the lower end of a daily shooting star candle and looks like it might push into the above resistance. AUDCAD is rolling over from a resistance at 0.9670 towards a support at 0.9431. NZD has risen most against the AUD and the AUDNZD pair has been trending lower for past few hours. This has brought the pair to a 50 day SMA and a daily pin bar. This however is taking place in the middle of the daily chart price range. NZDCAD is trending higher after it was able to hold above the 50 day SMA. However, there is a weekly resistance level at 0.87 area and the pair is approaching the level again. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today RBA Policy Meetings Minutes: RBA policy makers were less worried about the currency appreciation in the beginning of August and said that weaker currency was helping exports. The bank deemed it likely that when the US Fed raises the rates the Australian dollar will depreciate in value against the US dollar. UK CPI: The yy UK Consumer Price Index numbers are released today. The previous figure was 0.0 and with energy prices at multi-year lows there are no expectations that inflation would pickup now. Forecast: 0.0. US Housing Starts: July housing starts data should show a 3 decline in the pace of starts to a 1,140k (median 1,180k) pace for the month. Permits are seen at 1,200k from 1,337 in June and completions should be 990k from 972k in June. The NAHB remained firm in July at 60 and todays release showed a further increase to 61 in August. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 19h August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th August 2015. EURUSD, Daily Yesterdays intraday rally was short lived and EURUSD resumed its downward trend. In the Asian session the pair moved higher and attempted to test resistance at 1.1080. Rally moved the EURUSD spot rate outside a descending 4h price channel. However, the aforementioned resistance is a daily low from 13th while 50 day SMA is coinciding with the level. This combination triggered selling and the last complete 4h candle turned into a shooting star. As mentioned in the previous reports, there are no significant daily support levels before the 1.0934. And because the spot is now close to resistance levels, it makes more sense to look for further downside over the coming days. IMF participation in Greek bailout is indispensable for Germany, according to German Finance Minister Schaeuble. He stressed that the IMF agreed in principle to join the Greek bailout and said he is confident about the IMFs assessment of Greek debt sustainability. Schaeuble, who is trying to sell the package to increasingly reluctant lawmakers from his own party, repeated that a haircut is out of the question and that there is only limited room for further Greek debt relief. So its hard to share his confidence that the IMF will come on board in October. Eurozone officials have been considering soft debt relief in the form of maturity extensions and extended payment holidays, but the IMF previously argued that this is unlikely to be sufficient to reach debt sustainability. Assuring lawmakers that the IMF will get on board, risks that Schaeuble and Merkel will have to declare defeat if there is no agreement with the fund on Greek debt. Chinas economy and a EM debt crisis are now the principal concerns of investors, according to the latest sentiment survey from BoA-Merrill, eclipsing risks of a Eurozone breakdown This comes with emerging market stocks trading at four-year lows and Asian currencies taking a pummeling. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah clocked fresh 17-year lows today, since the dark days of the 1998 Asian crisis. China is very much at the center of all this. Stock markets there had another volatile day with the Shanghai Composite showing a 5.1 loss at its intraday low, but managing to close with just a 1.2 decline (its not clear whether official support was behind this, but that seems to be the widespread suspicion). This follows the 6.1 dive of yesterday. Atlanta Feds GDPNow was boosted to 1.3 for Q3 from the previous 0.7 estimate, as the measure catches up to the internals of Fridays industrial production report, though still some distance from the Blue Chip median estimate of 2.7. The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on August 18, up from 0.7 percent on August 13. The forecast for real GDP growth increased from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent after Fridays industrial production release from the Federal Reserve. Most of this increase was due to a 15.3 percent increase in seasonally adjusted motor vehicle assemblies in July that boosted the forecast of the contribution of real inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from -2.2 percentage points to -1.8 percentage points. US housing starts edged up 0.2 in July to a 1,206k pace, the best since October 2007, after rebounding 12.3 to 1,204k in June (revised from 1,174k). But, building permits fell 16.3 to 1,119k, from a revised 7.0 June gain to 1,337k (revised from 1,343k). Single family starts rose 12.8 on the month, with multifamily down 17.0. Housing completions increased 2.4 to 987k from the 964k June rate (revised from 972k). Headline starts are better than forecast, but permits disappointed a bit, to leave a mixed view on the report in general, but in a vacuum would keep a September rate hike on the table. Currency Movers Charts The moves in the FX markets have been rather subdued ahead of FOMC minutes. EUR has been gaining while the USD has been losing ground. We touched upon NZD and milk prices yesterday as there was an expectation that prices of dairy products would rise. Today however, NZD didnt move higher even on the back of the news that dairy prices moved higher. According to agrimoney prices for milk powder rose 19 from two weeks ago, while prices for the anhydrous milk fat soared 27. This is the first time prices have risen on the GDT since early March, and mark a recover from the previous auctions 13-year price low and is likely resulting from a supply squeeze. This suggests that the free falling milk prices might have found a bottom and should support the New Zealand economy. However, the currency markets dont seem believe this story as NZD is down today. Perhaps, the worries about Chinese economy and the Fed rate hike expectations are behind the lack of buying interest. Just recently there has also been some concerted move into the safe haven currency CHF but the changes are still relatively small. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: FX Pair Support Resistance GBPUSD 1.5563 1.5806 AUDUSD 0.7216 0.7437 USDCAD 1.2950 1.3152 USDJPY 1.2379 1.2528 NZDUSD 0.6470 0.6650 Main Macro Events Today Japan All Industry Activity Index came in at 0.3 disappointing slightly as expectation was 0.4. However, the improvement from previous figure of -0.5 was welcome. US CPI: July CPI should reveal a 0.1 (median 0.2) increase for the headline with the core index up 0.2 (median 0.2) on the month. After leveling off briefly, oil prices resumed their decline in July which is likely to add downward pressure to the CPI release. This effect showed up in the already released July PPI where we saw a headline increase of 0.2 but which included a 0.6 decline for the energy component in July. FOMC Minutes: Key domestic data have generally been good enough to support liftoff on September 17. Indeed, GDP growth should hit at least 3.0 in Q2 and Q3. However, the FOMC isnt operating in a vacuum and ongoing weakness in commodity prices, the dollars strength, and remaining uncertainties over the outlook for China could tip the scales in favor of a delay, especially given the generally dovish leanings of the voting members, led by Yellen and Dudley. Well look for clues in the FOMC minutes for the degree to which the various parameters might affect the decision. Tomorrows data on July CPI will be of some importance too though it have lost some of its potency given the plunge in commodities. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 20th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 20th August 2015. The FOMC minutes lacked clear signs of September rate hike and triggered a sharp move higher in EURUSD yesterday. The pair moved to upper 1.5 sd Bollinger band and is now trading inside 4h pivotal resistance and relatively close to a weekly resistance level at 1.1189. When price is trading near a higher time frame resistance, such as a weekly level at 1.1189, it is more challenging for the bulls to move prices higher and downward reactions from proximity of the level become more probable. The daily picture is now medium term bullish with the latest low being a (second) higher low and the high before that being a higher high. This suggests that there is now a daily uptrend in place and we should see EURUSD moving higher into the weekly resistance area over the coming weeks but longs should be timed at corrections. In the short term, the nearby resistance area could be a challenge for the bulls and we should keep an eye on how price reacts to the resistance levels. The nearest significant support and resistance levels are at 1.1015 and 1.1189. ESM rubberstamped the Greek bailout late yesterday, following the ratification in national parliaments this week and last Fridays approval by the Eurogroup. The ESM said EUR 13 bn will be paid out immediately and a EUR 10 bn bank buffer transferred to a segregated account at the ESM. EUR 3 bn are to be disbursed by the end of November, after further prior action from Greece. The ESM said the privatisation fund is to be established this year with a total targeted value of EUR 50 bn of assets to be sold. Debt relief for Greece in the form of longer grace and payments periods, will be considered after the first review in OctoberNovember and the IMF is expected to contribute after European creditors adopt debt relief measures. Whether this form of soft debt relief will be sufficient to satisfy the fund remains the key question for IMF participation. German producer prices continue to fall, with annual PPI inflation coming in at -1.3 yy in July, up from -1.4 yy in June, but still firmly in negative territory. The renewed decline in energy prices is keeping a lid on import prices and overall PPI, while this years drop in the EUR is taking its time to feed through the product chain. Still headline rates are inching up from the lows seen at the start of the year and excluding energy the rate stood at -0.2 yy in July. There never really was a great risk of a real deflationary spiral in Germany and with a tight labour market adding to wage gains and a rise in unit labour costs, while fueling consumption, inflation is seen trending higher over the next year. FOMC minutes showed a leaning toward a hike, with most officials seeing conditions for liftoff approaching (minutes were leaked early). However, as of July, those conditions still hadnt been met. And the recent events from China make September a difficult call. While participants cheered the improvement in the economy since the weak Q1, validating their forecasts, a few were disappointed that growth was still lower than had been projected earlier in the year. On inflation, its still expected to pick up, although some saw downside risks due to economic and financial developments abroad. The remarks on China were a little more expansive than usual. It said several participants noted that a material slowdown in Chinese economic activity could pose risks to the U. S. economic outlook. Some participants also discussed the risk that a possible divergence in interest rates in the United States and abroad might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pressure on commodity prices and the weakness in net exports. Also of note, the Fed staff revised its inflation outlook down and price pressures are expected to remain below the 2 target through 2017. Currency Movers Charts EUR has been strong today across the board while AUD has been losing ground especially against EUR. EURAUD has been trending higher over the past few weeks and the latest move EURUSD encouraged buyers in to take EURAUD to the recent highs at 1.53. EURCAD is another strongly trending pair moving towards a resistance at 1.4733. Since March this year, EUR has been moving higher against the CAD on the back of oil prices staying weak. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today US Philadelphia Fed Index: The August Philly Fed is out Thursday and is expected to decline to 4.0 (median 6.5) from 5.7 in July. The already released Empire State index plunged in August, dropping to -14.9 from 3.9 in July with the ISM-adjusted measure falling to 44.9 from 50.0. This drop set a low back to 2009 and will be a source of downside risk for the remaining August producer sentiment reports. US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 15 is out Thursday and the headline is expected to fall to 266k (median 270k) from 274k last week and 269k in the week prior to that. Claims are poised to average 274k in August after a lean 272k in July. US Existing Home Sales: July existing home sales data is out Thursday and should show a 1.6 slowdown in the headline pace to 5.400 million (median 5.440 million) from 5.490 million in June. The June headline set a new high back to 09. Already released measures of housing strength for July have remained firm with the NAHB rising to 60 from 59 and housing starts up to 1.206 million from 1.204 million in June. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 21st August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st August 2015. Euro has been a funding currency for carry trades. Market participants have been borrowing in euros at near zero rates and investing in better yielding Asian economies where the rates are higher. Lately however carry traders (in short Euro positions) have been forced to unwind these investments as euro has been trending higher. The latest rally moved EURUSD far outside the upper Bollinger bands. This rally ran into a resistance at 1.1292, a daily low from June 19th. A move outside daily Bollinger bands and close to a resistance is likely to be reversed and price needs to move lower to find support levels from which to attempt to move higher again. The nearest support area is at 1.1189 -1.1216 but this area is rather high up in the range of the recent uptrend. If the recent momentum continues the this area can provide a level for a new reaction low but should that be violated a more reliable support area for EURUSD is closer to a weekly high of 1.0966 at 1.1018 1.1094. In terms of weekly picture and sideways movement weve seen since May this year the pair is getting a bit pricey. This limits the upside potential and should trigger a more careful approach to trading the long side. On the fundamental side Feds lack of commitment to raising rates (evident in the latest FOMC minutes) and Chinese slowdown together with increased volatility in emerging markets raises the possibility that EURUSD will keep on appreciating. The CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index has risen from July 17th low of 17.59 to 28.56 at the time of writing, a rise of 62.36. All this increases the likelihood that the Fed will start paying attention to the risk of adding more instability to these markets by increasing the rates. However, from a technical point of view, a resistance is a resistance until it has been penetrated. Therefore signs of reversal near weekly highs should be taken seriously and traded appropriately. Major weekly support area will be found between 1.0809 and 1.0996. Greek elections to bring stability or more chaos Tsipras decision to resign to pave the way for snap elections was not a total surprise, given the unraveling of Syriza amid the controversy over Greeces 3rd bailout. It is not clear yet when elections will be held, but a September 20 date, as an official yesterday suggested, would be ahead of the 1st bailout review and debt relief talks which raise some risks. Tsipras may be hoping that the vote will bolster his eroding power base and Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said he hoped the elections will bring more stability and will come early. However, the reforms will hardly bring any real improvement in the short term and could still see anti-austerity forces gaining strength, which has the potential to throw Greece back to where it was earlier in the year, if a new left government doesnt want to see through the agreed reforms. German consumers start to worry about growth outlook. The overall projection for consumer confidence in September came in weaker than expected at 9.9, down from 10.1 in August. The August breakdown showed a fresh drop in the reading for the economic outlook to just 16.6 less than half the 38.3 at the peak back in May. Income expectations are also coming off the boil and the willingness to buy is easing, which suggests the strong boost from consumption that has been helping the German economy to recover this year may taper off. This will add to concerns about the impact of the slowdown in China on the German economy. The July US existing home sales rose 2.0 to a 5.59 mln new cycle-high clip extended the June surge to a 5.48 (was 5.49) mln prior cycle-high to leave an encouraging report overall. We now have cyclical gains of 62 for existing home sales and 44 for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 79 for new home sales, 152 for housing starts, and 118 for permits. More generally, the housing recovery lost steam after the Feds taper talk and mortgage rate gains of mid-2013, and sales are just 5.3 above the 5.31 mln prior recent-peak in July of 2013 as we approach the presumed start of Fed tightening. Existing home sales fell 3.0 for 2014 overall to a 4.92 mln rate despite the underlying recovery, and we expect an 8 2015 climb that brings us back to the mid-2013 sales pace. The percentage of all-cash transactions rose to 23 from 22 in June but a higher 24 over the prior three months, versus a much higher 29 last July. The downtrend is a good sign for ongoing repair in the mortgage market. Currency Movers Charts AUD is down again against all the major competitors while a safe haven currency JPY is benefiting from uncertainty that is clearly visible in the global stock markets. SampP 500 ended down over 2 yesterday while German DAX hadnt a single issue that rose yesterday. Today Shanghai Composite closed down by 4.7 while euro has been benefiting from carry trade unwinds. All this points to more unstable times ahead and is in line with my predictions on global stock markets May this year (tweet: Bull market for stocks is over). This should also translate into added volatility in the currency markets and provide traders with new opportunities. Todays moves have driven AUDCHF and AUDJPY at support areas created by the lower daily Bollinger bands while EURAUD is trading near a pivotal weekly high from October last year. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today Chinas manufacturing PMI fell to a preliminary 47.1 in August from a final 47.8 in July. The decline was contrary to expectations for some modest improvement and left the lowest reading since March of 2009. The report suggests the weakness evident in Chinas economy during July continued in August, ultimately exacerbating the China slowdown fears the have roiled global markets last week and this week. Eurozone PMIs stabilise in August, with the manufacturing reading holding steady at 52.4 and the services number rising to 54.3. Better than Bloomberg consensus, with strong German orders data helping to boost the German manufacturing PMI, which compensated for another drop in the French reading. Canada Retail Sales: We expect retail sales to rise 0.1 in June (median 0.3) after the 1.0 bounce in May. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to rise 0.5 in June (median 0.5) following the 0.9 gain in May. Gasoline prices rose 6.0 in June according to the CPI, which should boost total and ex-auto sales. We could see a sizable boost, suggesting upside risk to the total and ex-autos sales estimates. Canada CPI should expand at a 1.4 yy pace in July (median same at 1.4) following the 1.0 yy rate in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1 on a month comparable basis in June (median 0.2) after the 0.2 gain in June. Gas prices were essentially flat in July compared to June. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 24th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21th August 2015. The risk-off theme continues in global financial markets as traders re-price the USD in view of the reduced chance that the Fed will begin tightening rates in September. The EURUSD is now trading near multi month highs around 1.15 after accelerating through my 1.1260s target area see my August 14 report, current price is starting to look overbought ahead of the 1.1530 resistance level. EURUSD traders should watch if price can hold above the 1.1436 support level before initiating new longs, otherwise a break below the 1.1430s could open up the possibility for a set-back towards the 1.1216 1.1189 levels ahead of an advance on the 1.16s. German property prices continue to rise, with prices for apartments rising by around 1.4 mm. The overall index rose 0.73 mm and up 5.3 yy. Low interest rates and a robust labour market are driving up property prices, but while the Bundesbank is keeping a close eye on developments it is not seeing signs of a serious property bubble at the moment, even if prices in key cities are already overvalued. Asian and emerging market currencies are under pressure, along with commodity related currencies such as the AUD and the CAD as the FOMC minutes showed a Committee divided, the minutes gave no clear signals on the timing of a rate liftoff, however the mention of risks from China, the growthinflation impacts of a stronger dollar, and a downgraded inflation outlook from the Fed Staff resulted in a downbeat market interpretation. China will remain a focal point as Chinese officials struggle with a slowing economy and falling equity market. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current 5 day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago. The AUD is trading lower as the spill-over from the turmoil in Chinas stock markets remain a risk factor for the AUD. The JPY is trading higher as talk of further easing to stimulate growth continues to gain momentum. The EUR over the last five trading days is stronger as the current sell off in the Chinese stock markets and weak commodity prices may have the market rethinking a US rate move in September. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is due to speak today. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 25th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th August 2015. The EUR is trading lower this Tuesday after a nearly 340 pip move with the main cause pointing to Chinese retail investors realization that their government is no longer willing to support the Chinese stock markets. Mondays aggressive global stock market sell-off was amplified by a number of brewing factors, the devaluation of the Yuan, the collapse of commodity prices, and the uncertainty of when Central banks will start to tighten rates. At the moment, the EURUSD is at risk of a retracement of the 1.1020-1.17 sharp multi up-day move. However, the EURUSD saw serval breaks of resistance that could lead to further positive upward momentum on price. Traders should now be on alert if the former 1.1530 resistance now turned support can hold before initiating new longs, otherwise a possibility dip towards the mid 1.13s could see buyers remerge to support price for a potential next leg higher move above the 1.1750s. The German DAX remains clearly below the 10000 mark and Asian markets were volatile in overnight trade, with the ASX closing higher, but the Nikkei losing nearly 4 again. Crude Oil touched 37.70 after making it to 39s following its entry into to the 37s. The slide lower comes as traders fear that global stock markets may pick up downward momentum again the price fall indicates that traders view that global demand for the commodity will weaken as the Chinese economic slowdown takes hold. The White House said the Treasury is closely monitoring global markets and China should continue to pursue reforms, while touting the strength of the U. S. economy. However, it did warn that Congress needs to pass the budget and avoid shutdowns to avoid self-inflicted wounds. Merkel of Germany said that a crisis in China wont last and it will do everything it can to stabilize the situation, while Hollande of France said China will find the right answers to secure its economy. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The JPY is lower against the majors after the JPY showed strong gains as a safe haven currency during yesterdays volatile trading session. The USDJPY bounced nearly 300 points from the lows, as Wall Street pares its losses USDJPY touched 119.02 highs after collapsing from over 120.00 to nearly 2015 lows of 116.15. The AUD is trading higher as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. The EUR is trading mixed after the German Ifo index rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today EUR German IFO Index: Rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. This was even stronger than consensus forecast, with markets looking for a correction, although the rebound in German PMIs and strong orders already suggested that the Ifo would hold up. The breakdown confirmed that the improvement was entirely due to a jump in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward looking expectations index fell back slightly to 102.2 from 102.3 in July. The deteriorating growth outlook in China and other emerging markets may not have had an immediate impact on this months reading, but will be felt in coming month. Bund futures extended losses on the stronger than expected number, with the September contract now down 90 ticks on the day. USD Consumer Confidence: August Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 92.0 from 90.9. This compares to a recent low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decline in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 26th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th August 2015. The hope for a rebound in European stock markets didnt last long, and equities are selling off again, with the DAX down at the market opening and below the 10000 mark. Chinas rate cut yesterday by the Peoples Bank of China initiated a rebound in Asian equity markets. It seems the realization in Europe is that the underlying problem is due to the fact that emerging markets are slowing down. The Euro Stoxx 600 has dropped 12 in August so far, and is heading for the worst monthly drop since 2008. The medium term view on the EURUSD, since price has traded through the May tops at the 1.1430s and then back under to touch below the 1.14 support on Tuesday, indicates that price still remains at risk of a continued retracement. The risk for longs is a re-visit towards the former major resistance 1.12 area where traders should watch for a potential higher low to develop before any attempt to retest the 1.17 recent high. The USD gets some support as the U. S. consumer confidence rose sharply to 101.5 in August after climbing to 91.0 in June (revised from 90.9). It was 90.3 a year ago. This is the best level since March. The USD is trading mostly higher against the JPY, GBP, AUD and CHF, ahead of todays Core Durable Goods Orders data. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The JPY is weakening across the board as regional stocks rose. The CAD is stronger against all majors as Crude prices firm up. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today USD Durable Goods Orders: July durable goods data is out today and should show orders up 1.0 (median -0.5) following a 3.4 bounce in June. Markets expect shipments to be up 1.5 from 0.5 in June and inventories to be up 0.6, the same pace as June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the IS ratio down to 1.66 after two months at 1.68. There is some downside risk as Boeing orders fell to 101 in July from 181 in June. USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks: Dudley is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 27th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th August 2015. The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7 decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair. European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34 gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08 higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3. In Europe, most markets are up around 2, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34 gain the FTSE 100 is up 2.07 and the Euro Stoxx 2.20. Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U. S. and the U. K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook. Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike seems less compelling to me than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly 3.95 in Wednesday trade. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120s. The commodity driven currencies AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous sessions sharp sell off of the GBPUSD. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5 (median 3.3) from 2.3 in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by 17 bln, inventories by 16 bln, consumption by 11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by 2 bln. USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 28th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th August 2015. The EURUSD hit a low near the key 1.12 support level on Thursday. I previously posted I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair. This I posted when the EURUSD was trading around 1.1311. At the moment, the euro is likely to continue its bounce off the key support as buyers emerged to support price. The risk for short sellers is that the latest bounce could extend out towards the 1.14s 15s. However, traders should be on alert for any price drop below the 1.12s as this move may raise fears for a return towards the low 1.11s to mid 1.1150s. The rebound on stock markets continued in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp up 1.77 and Japanese markets outperforming. The USD managed to firm up in the wake of renewed optimism about the U. S. economy following yesterdays revised Q2 GDP, which also helped the U. S. Dow Jones to close up 2.30 on Thursday. Today, the Eurozone stock markets are broadly lower, with Eurozone markets underperforming and the DAX down around 8 for the month. The markets are now hoping that stimulus from central banks may have helped to limit the sell off. Uncertainty about growth and central bank outlooks is adding to market volatility and means the impact of stronger than expected data is unclear. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The AUD is weaker across the board as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. Also, the unrest in Chinas stock markets remains the major risk factor for the AUD. The GBP trades lower after a bout of sterling buying in the wake of UK Q2 GDP data, which was unrevised at 0.7 qq. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today GBP UK Q2 GDP:: UK GDP was left unrevised at 0.7 qq and 2.6 yy in second-estimate data, matching expectations. Growth in 2014 was also left unrevised, at 3.0. The breakdown showed a 3.7 qq rise in exports versus just a 0.6 qq increase in imports, while consumer spending eased to 0.7 qq. Encouragingly, business expenditure rose 2.9 qq, the biggest rise in 12 months, and by 5.0 yy. USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): The second release on Michigan Sentiment is out Today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 93.5 (median 94.0) after a 92.9 headline in the first release that marked a decline from 93.1 in July. The tendency over the past year has been for upward revisions and consumer confidence for the month spiked higher, rising to 101.5 from 91.0 in July. These two factors should lend upside risk to the release. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 31st August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 31st August 2015. Asian stock markets closed lower again in overnight trade, led by a 1.28 decline in the Nikkei 225, as the Chinese stock markets backed off following a Beijing announcement that large-scale purchases to support the market are not to be expected in the future. This weighed on regional equities, Asian and commodity currencies. At the time of writing, U. S. stock futures are down -125 points, setting the stage for a renewed decline in European stock markets. Eurozone August inflation data is out later today and it should show a renewed drop in the headline rate closer towards zero in the wake of lower commodity prices, EUR traders will look for further ECB rate clues in language during the press conference on Thursday after the Minimum Bid Rate decision. Traders should also take note that ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Jackson Hole symposium that current inflation forecasts dont price in recent declines in oil prices. This backs expectations for a downward revision to the central banks inflation forecasts at Thursdays council meeting. The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the short term is that price is bouncing off the 1.12s key support level with price potential limited to the upside between the 1.1460 1.1530s. Price looks to be trading at the lower end of the short term upward price channel, and as long as the key 1.12s hold firm the longs should maintain control over the immediate short term. Short sellers may present themselves on a break below the 1.12s with support levels seen near the low 1.11s 1.1150s. Traders should pay some attention to the recent statements by Central Bank centers of influence members since a large part of the recent market volatility revolves around the uncertainty of the timing of rate adjustments. The U. S. Fed vice chairman Fischer saying over the weekend that there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further, while BoE Governor Carney said that China uncertainty was unlikely to change UK monetary policy. On Friday, Atlanta Fed moderate Lockhart said hes less resolute on a September hike in wake of market volatility, according to a Market News report. Market turmoil may change the thinking on policy, he said, though the economy is in quite solid mode of expansion. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current 5-day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago. The JPY is weaker across the board as the Japan CPI rose 0.2 yy in July slowing from 0.4 in June. The AUD traded generally stronger as construction work done in Australia climbed 1.6 qq for Q2 2015. The CAD is firmer after the CAD PPI in July inched up 0.1 yy, after it had fallen 0.9 in June. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today EUR Consumer Price Index: EMU August CPI is expected to fall to 0.1 (median same) from 0.2, this is mainly the result of lower oil prices. Sharply lower oil prices mean the inflation trajectory will likely look flatter than previously and at the same time the risks to growth have increased. Still, core inflation is actually trending higher, money supply growth is accelerating and loan growth stabilising. In this situation, the ECB will use low inflation to give markets some dovish sound-bites at Thursdays central bank meeting and stress that the door to further measures remains open, without committing to further easing. USD Chicago Purchasing Managers Index: The Chicago PMI continues the August producer sentiment releases later today and should reveal a headline improvement to 55.0 (median 54.9) from 54.7. Producer sentiment measures have been mixed so far in August and we expect the months ISM-adjusted average to decline to 52 after holding at 53 in both June and July. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Encontro. 1st September 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st September 2015. The global stock market selloff continued in overnight trade in Asia, with the Nikkei dropping off another 3.84. The USD traded mostly weaker oil prices have fallen back off the recent high price near 54.3, and now trades just below 53 after rallying strongly over the three previous sessions. The USD weakness may be linked to the new declines in Chinese and global stock markets, this global selloff have investors and traders rethinking the timing of when the U. S. Fed will tighten rates. This uncertainty regarding the timing of a U. S. rate hike is fueling the current downward pressure on the USD. The markets will remain volatile until we see clearer signs from the U. S. Fed. The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the immediate short term remains to be contained within the Aug 7th Aug 12th upward slopping price channel. Now that the price has clearly bounced off the 1.12s key, support current price potential is set to test the upside between the 1.1460 1.1530s. However, any break below 1.12 could open up a 1.11 target. A hypothetical trade set up could be to resell near the 1.1460s 1.1530s for a 1.11 target. German jobless numbers fell 7K in August, slightly more than expected and leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless rate steady at a low 6.4. Official numbers still look good, but the improvement on the labour market is leveling off as the market is increasingly tight. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 2.0, as widely expected and ignoring recent market turmoil in Chinese stock markets. The AUD is seen as adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices and further depreciation seems likely however, the RBA is now cautious about adjusting rates lower because of the strong Australian property market. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The USD is softer across the board as declines in Chinese and global stock markets and the associated risk-off sentiment have served to erode Fed tightening expectations, which weighed on the USD. The AUD is weaker post-RBA statement gains amid a backdrop of declining Asian and global stock markets. The EUR and the GBP are mostly trading mixed as the EU commission maintains a 1.5 growth forecast, and UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today EUR Manufacturing PMI: August manufacturing PMI revised down to 52.3 from 52.4 reported initially, which means the overall reading fell slightly from the 52.4 reported for July, despite the sharp jump in the German reading. Confidence indicators overall still held up in August, but the downward revision ties in with contraction in China and is likely to herald further weakness in coming months as demand falls off with slowing growth in emerging markets and uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy. GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed at 51.5 in August, down from Julys 51.9 reading and below the median forecast for 52.0. The August dip brings the PMI indicator to within a whisker of Junes two-year low of 51.4. The strong trade-weighted value of sterling has been curtailing the export-sensitive sector. CAD Gross Domestic Product: GDP is seen falling 1.0 in Q2 (qq,) after the 0.6 drop in Q1. But the expected 0.2 gain in June GDP would end a five month run of monthly GDP declines and support Bank expectations that the economy will recover in 2H. USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: August ISM will be released later today and should reveal a headline decline to 52.5 (median 52.7) from 52.7 in July. Other measures of producer sentiment have been volatile for the month with big drops in the Empire State, and Richmond and Dallas Feds. The Philly Fed did manage to climb higher to 8.3 from 5.7 last month. Despite this the balance of risk for tomorrows release is to the downside and we expect the broader ISM-adjusted average for the month to fall to 52 after holding at 53 in both July and June. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.